Obviously the election declaration is the week after APEC unless something goes wrong for Howard. The Liberals have been trying to advance purchase campaign advertising ahead of actually calling it, which I understand is not the convention. The time frame they were looking at was about two to three weeks time, which puts it straight after APEC. Labor tried to purchase advertising for the same period when they found out. Both were rebuffed. Labor has called for the Government to call it.
It makes sense as APEC should look good for Howard. I guess that is his strategy at least. I do not think aspirational targets are going to cut it on progress and everyone will know it. If he wants to win again he will have to use the opportunity to stage his own assassination attempt. He will become matyrly and that’s about all that can probably save him.
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Problem - you've got two Federal Parliamentary sitting weeks after APEC.
Now, the question is whether he calls during the sitting or after? If he calls during the sitting, he hobbles the vast majority of sitting candidates who will have to fly from Canberra back to their electorates. So, it would make sense to call after. The sensible date to call would be the 23rd of September. A four week campaign, on the basis that a six week campaign would put the election after the Melbourne Cup Day Reserve Bank Meeting (meaning the possibility of the final week consisting of news cycles dominated by interest rate rise and the Federal Government destroyed an Australian tradition stories), would mean an election in late October. The problem with this is that, by late October, there will be more speculation about a November interest rate rise. This is the sort of speculation that might actually have an impact on the decision that voters make …
Here are the primary factors for guessing when the election will be held
• Howard has said it will be this year.
• The RBA did not increase interest rates this week. Due to unofficial though reliable inflationary figures, they will almost certainly be increased at their late October meeting. I do not see how he can time the election to avoid the rate increase, or at least prevent its inevitable and impending threat from dogging any date Howard chooses.
• Parliamentary sittings would suggest a November election between the 10th and 24th or December 8th through to the 22nd. I doubt he would hold the election so close to Christmas, unless he wants the holidays to impact on the vote, so I think 15th December is far more likely than the 22nd.
• It will not be called during APEC and as Martin has indicated, there are parliamentary sittings immediately after the summit, during which you would assume it will not be called.
I will be putting my money on a 24th November or a 15th December election and it will be called in the last week of September for November or last week of October for December.
I suspect Howard’s need to host APEC has tied him to an election period which will treat him very unfavourably. Hubris anyone? He has waited too long on calling the election, as each day it appears to drift away slightly. Considering Labor needs 16 seats to win office, had we seen an early election, just after the so called Rudd honeymoon, Labor could have been received well at the ballot box but failed to dislodge (dis-Kirribilli?) the crusties. It would appear now completely out of reach for Howard, and the questions are now how many seats will Labor receive above the 16, which Coalition members will lose their seats, and who will control the senate?
I doubt Howard would gain much holding a 2008 election.
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